Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
team surplusloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HOTUwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 287 bans
Marci
283 picks · 529 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Undying
260 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 496 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% team surplus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% HOTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
team surplus 46%HOTU 54%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the game was taken by HOTU.
Game 2prediction missed66:50
team surplus 46%HOTU 54%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the game was taken by team surplus in 46:49.
Game 3prediction correct19:55
team surplus 46%HOTU 54%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the game was taken by HOTU in 27:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 54%
Series resultHOTU 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3