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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
bengan · 8 games
88%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 36 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 30 games
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 26 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 24 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 20 games
80%
Slardar
Slardar
Corrupted · 20 games
30%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Mirage · 17 games
41%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
527 picks · 313 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
432 picks · 189 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 173 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 503 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 299 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
312 picks · 310 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 509 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 15%
Hero pool strength56% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Team Synapse 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
42% · 102 games55% · 31 game
Phantom Lancerssnovv1
Phantom Lancer
Beastmaster
Beastmasteremptiness
50% · 218 games56% · 299 games
PuckDifference
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMikey
54% · 174 games44% · 103 games
Brewmasterelmo^^
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickJeezy
51% · 281 game50% · 311 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernbengan
56% · 169 games46% · 200 games
TechiesRein
Techies
Game 2prediction correct48:13
Team Synapse 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikey
49% · 44 games50% · 61 game
Lunassnovv1
Luna
Kez
KezTA2000
52% · 152 games48% · 177 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesJeezy
49% · 111 games52% · 95 games
Batriderelmo^^
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderemptiness
50% · 12 games59% · 39 games
Bounty Hunterqueezy
Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
50% · 71 game29% · 18 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 62%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2