EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Synapse
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Mirana
Jeezy · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 2 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
Dragon Knight
emptiness · 1 game
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 25 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 21 game
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Techies
ariel · 18 games
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
479 picks · 330 bans
Bane
341 picks · 456 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 503 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 499 bans
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
266 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Team Synapse 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeInfernal
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Dark WillowJeezy
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Baneemptiness
Slardarhotoke^^
58% · 227 games
Centaur Warrunnerariel
50% · 357 games
HoodwinkCovisnine
Game 2prediction missed35:18
Team Synapse 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 24:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterInfernal
Nature's Prophetyoung G
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Hoodwinkemptiness
Primal Beasthotoke^^
49% · 191 game
LargoCovisnine
43% · 93 games
Winter Wyvernariel
Game 3prediction missed32:38
Team Synapse 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark WillowJeezy
Windrangeryoung G
SlardarInfernal
Centaur Warrunnerhotoke^^
Largoemptiness
PangolierNattyNarwhal
50% · 377 games
HoodwinkCovisnine
52% · 146 games
Disruptorariel
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3