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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
emptiness · 5 games
100%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
100%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 8 games
88%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 317 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 499 bans
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 389 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
313 picks · 434 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 623 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
287 picks · 102 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
277 picks · 115 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 289 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Team Synapse 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosemptiness
44% · 122 games45% · 70 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Mirana
MiranaJeezy
54% · 231 game55% · 116 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Bane
Banebengan
55% · 318 games42% · 103 games
SlardarCopy
Slardar
56% · 96 games
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
46% · 286 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed49:35
Team Synapse 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 52:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
Enigmaemptiness
52% · 93 games51% · 56 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
39% · 269 games47% · 110 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
42% · 96 games60% · 150 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
63% · 45 games
LionEkki
Lion
58% · 97 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed
Team Synapse 22%Pipsqueak+4 78%
The model gave 78% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Synapse.
Game 4prediction missed26:25
Team Synapse 34%Pipsqueak+4 66%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawemptiness
57% · 240 games51% · 154 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
46% · 378 games55% · 53 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
45% · 326 games46% · 220 games
SlardarCopy
Slardar
54% · 119 games
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
50% · 398 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 78%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4