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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Syntaxwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Syntax

Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Warlock
Warlock
Stoic · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 1 game
0%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 19 games
37%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 11 games
18%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 363 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
413 picks · 250 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 363 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 635 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
325 picks · 234 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 417 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 311 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
283 picks · 267 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Syntax
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:36
Team Syntax 62%Team Spirit Academy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 1:05:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasteremptiness
43% · 67 games56% · 43 games
Earth Spirit86
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
45% · 42 games50% · 117 games
LargoBatyuk
Largo
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorStoic
54% · 64 games56% · 13 games
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed24:44
Team Syntax 63%Team Spirit Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 54:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfireemptiness
50% · 177 games58% · 45 games
Necrophos86
Necrophos
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
50% · 116 games48% · 299 games
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskJeezy
47% · 233 games47% · 182 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct51:23
Team Syntax 63%Team Spirit Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razoremptiness
36% · 28 games56% · 112 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Largo
LargoJeezy
63% · 76 games46% · 96 games
Sand King86
Sand King
Tusk
TuskStoic
47% · 157 games45% · 53 games
TechiesAidar
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Syntax · 71%
Series resultTeam Syntax 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3