European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyewin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Türkiye
Phoenix
Jeezy · 4 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Lion
ariel · 4 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
482 picks · 659 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 552 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 188 bans
Batrider
338 picks · 363 bans
Luna
324 picks · 432 bans
Invoker
315 picks · 875 bans
Muerta
313 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Türkiye
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:27
Team Türkiye 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawG.T.I
SniperOtaker
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
ClockwerkStoic
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
50% · 43 games
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
48% · 99 games
Muertaariel
Game 2prediction correct42:43
Team Türkiye 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 1:06:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerG.T.I
MagnusNattyNarwhal
LichStoic
AlchemistOtaker
RubickJeezy
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
44% · 20 games
Night Stalkerмистер мораль
46% · 163 games
Gyrocopterariel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Türkiye · 56%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2