PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Türkiye
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 11 games
Lich
Stoic · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 10 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 7 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
bengan · 18 games
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
443 picks · 359 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 469 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 563 bans
Phoenix
347 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:40
Team Türkiye 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerG.T.I
GyrocopterLowskill
PhoenixJeezy
Ember SpiritSupream^
LichStoic
DoomForce
56% · 151 game
Muertaxsvampire
50% · 202 games
ClockwerkFly
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Team Türkiye 32%MOUZ 68%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyG.T.I
LinaSupream^
MarciStoic
LifestealerLowskill
GyrocopterJeezy
TidehunterForce
56% · 240 games
Shadow DemonFly
50% · 166 games
Tuskxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2