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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 15 games
93%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 12 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
10%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 9 games
56%

HunterZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 12 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
628 picks · 312 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1123 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 203 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 615 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
351 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 271 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:41
Team Tea 68%HunterZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tea — the game was taken by HunterZ in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
53% · 229 games49% · 187 games
MarciLumière
Marci
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWorick
51% · 326 games52% · 178 games
Dark SeerVitaly
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsCloud
49% · 291 game45% · 338 games
PuckBenjimon
Puck
Disruptor
DisruptorSoNNeikO
50% · 273 games47% · 173 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Pudge
PudgedEsire
60% · 83 games46% · 326 games
SnapfirePrada
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct23:6
Team Tea 71%HunterZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 14:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
57% · 154 games44% · 271 game
Queen of PainBenjimon
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanCloud
54% · 127 games46% · 234 games
MarsLumière
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
53% · 273 games51% · 105 games
SlardarVitaly
Slardar
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
47% · 253 games46% · 206 games
Shadow DemonMjz
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
53% · 282 games50% · 273 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct35:11
Team Tea 67%HunterZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
50% · 146 games56% · 189 games
Templar AssassinLumière
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
46% · 152 games53% · 298 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
43% · 98 games44% · 198 games
Queen of PainBenjimon
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
46% · 266 games62% · 162 games
ChenPrada
Chen
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
46% · 201 game49% · 16 games
TechiesMjz
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 80%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3