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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 19 games
84%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 19 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 14 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
OneJey · 13 games
54%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 11 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
90%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Rein · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
728 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 261 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
419 picks · 693 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
419 picks · 264 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 429 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 220 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
Team Tea 52%Most Wanted 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 20:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShigetsu
43% · 316 games53% · 303 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Puck
Puckxn丶e
46% · 289 games63% · 202 games
Naga Siren423
Naga Siren
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
45% · 201 game50% · 191 game
SlardarfortniteMan
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magemrls
44% · 33 games48% · 257 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireOneJey
49% · 233 games60% · 119 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed44:36
Team Tea 54%Most Wanted 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 1:02:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckxn丶e
50% · 444 games51% · 394 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
54% · 200 games55% · 295 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeCloud
44% · 129 games53% · 192 games
SlardarfortniteMan
Slardar
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
45% · 250 games56% · 185 games
ChenRein
Chen
Warlock
WarlockOneJey
44% · 274 games48% · 231 game
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 61%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2