DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TPTeam Publicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pudge
OneJey · 13 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 13 games
Team Public
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 6 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 6 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Jeezy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
722 picks · 347 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 632 bans
Hoodwink
504 picks · 258 bans
Puck
421 picks · 1174 bans
Mars
417 picks · 694 bans
Tusk
416 picks · 260 bans
Dragon Knight
401 picks · 420 bans
Jakiro
356 picks · 214 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:24
Team Tea 62%Team Public 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 49:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
Lycanmangekyou
Puckxn丶e
BeastmasterShad
AxeCloud
Dragon KnightAdzantick
SnapfireOneJey
DazzlePuppey
Ringmastermrls
Skywrath MageJeezy
Game 2prediction correct41:40
Team Tea 64%Team Public 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 55:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawxn丶e
WeaverShad
AlchemistShigetsu
Beastmastermangekyou
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Outworld DestroyerAdzantick
Hoodwinkmrls
Shadow DemonJeezy
JakiroOneJey
BatriderPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 74%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2