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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team_Teamwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team_Team

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
44%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
185 picks · 199 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
183 picks · 78 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 389 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 168 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 249 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
154 picks · 211 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Team_Team 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCrystallize
54% · 130 games57% · 60 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
49% · 196 games50% · 68 games
EnigmaSkyLark
Enigma
Axe
AxeInfernal
43% · 43 games48% · 64 games
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
48% · 20 games48% · 61 game
Spirit BreakerAstral
Spirit Breaker
51% · 136 games
SnapfireSsaSpartan
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed41:9
Team_Team 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Team_Team in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoonlight
60% · 100 games49% · 85 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Spectre
SpectreCrystallize
54% · 71 game53% · 128 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
39% · 94 games49% · 79 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorEcNart
54% · 248 games44% · 150 games
SnapfireSsaSpartan
Snapfire
49% · 71 game
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed44:15
Team_Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Team_Team in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallize
49% · 115 games55% · 77 games
Naga SirenNande
Naga Siren
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
51% · 156 games39% · 15 games
BristlebackSkyLark
Bristleback
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderInfernal
42% · 72 games54% · 102 games
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
52% · 36 games55% · 62 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
46% · 123 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 66%
Series resultTeam_Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3