ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team_Teamwin 1:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team_Team
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
Techiessignature
dark · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
meLes · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Windranger
Retsu · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
meLes · 5 games
Void Spirit
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Clockwerk
dark · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 185 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 74 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:24
Team_Team 30%Matreshka Team 70%
The model gave 70% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Team_Team in 44:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 70%
Series resultTeam_Team 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1