Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Thinkerwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBThe butcherloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Thinker
No games played over 6 months.
The butcher
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
774 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 968 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 688 bans
Undying
399 picks · 592 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 208 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Thinker
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% The butcher
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:40
Team Thinker 49%The butcher 51%
The model gave 51% on The butcher — the game was taken by Team Thinker in 37:34.
Game 2prediction missed32:50
Team Thinker 49%The butcher 51%
The model gave 51% on The butcher — the game was taken by Team Thinker in 39:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe butcher · 51%
Series resultTeam Thinker 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2