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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlas Burdenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 18 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 14 games
79%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 14 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
60%

Atlas Burden

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
chempik · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Hellscream · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SSS · 5 games
20%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 437 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 325 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 323 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
217 picks · 114 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
204 picks · 276 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
202 picks · 407 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
201 picks · 182 bans
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 31%
Hero pool strength64% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Team Tickles 68%Atlas Burden 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
64% · 93 games38% · 109 games
Queen of PainSSS
Queen of Pain
Windranger
WindrangerLorenof
47% · 81 game43% · 205 games
Timbersawchempik
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 95 games48% · 145 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
62% · 142 games42% · 83 games
Vengeful SpiritPanto
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
60% · 131 game
Game 2prediction missed11:26
Team Tickles 69%Atlas Burden 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
53% · 50 games54% · 271 game
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterForce
52% · 184 games49% · 43 games
Viperchempik
Viper
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
52% · 106 games46% · 204 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
51% · 105 games44% · 89 games
LionPanto
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
51% · 162 games
Game 3prediction correct36:27
Team Tickles 67%Atlas Burden 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 56:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
51% · 79 games45% · 129 games
Dragon Knightchempik
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkUlnit
58% · 87 games44% · 238 games
BatriderSSS
Batrider
Doom
DoomForce
54% · 139 games54% · 48 games
Ancient ApparitionHellscream
Ancient Apparition
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
50% · 122 games44% · 61 game
ChenPanto
Chen
Io
IoDukalis
57% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 77%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3