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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Adzantick · 6 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
NARMAN · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
83%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 10 games
70%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 329 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
247 picks · 114 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 219 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 479 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 291 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 380 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 430 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
187 picks · 281 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Tickles 64%KZ TEAM 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerUlnit
51% · 154 games49% · 180 games
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLorenof
50% · 185 games45% · 54 games
Weaver7jesu
Weaver
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 123 games45% · 123 games
TidehunterSkyLark
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
54% · 211 games46% · 241 game
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
55% · 57 games52% · 132 games
PugnaAstral
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct25:24
Team Tickles 60%KZ TEAM 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 47:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
47% · 110 games47% · 96 games
Faceless Void7jesu
Faceless Void
Visage
VisageForce
52% · 81 game57% · 230 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerLorenof
46% · 130 games50% · 96 games
MagnusSkyLark
Magnus
Chen
ChenDukalis
47% · 39 games53% · 284 games
TinyAstral
Tiny
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
47% · 425 games54% · 79 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 70%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2