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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 12 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Dukalis · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 7 games
29%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mitch · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 7 games
71%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Otaker · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 349 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
238 picks · 113 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
219 picks · 477 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 302 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 307 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 407 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
194 picks · 182 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 358 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Team Tickles 69%MarsBet Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
51% · 79 games41% · 73 games
Wraith KingOtaker
Wraith King
Puck
PuckLorenof
55% · 85 games52% · 283 games
DoomMr. Luck
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
52% · 135 games51% · 52 games
GyrocopterMitch
Gyrocopter
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
57% · 136 games49% · 125 games
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
45% · 98 games
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Team Tickles 66%MarsBet Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
50% · 44 games56% · 72 games
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
51% · 118 games49% · 146 games
MagnusMr. Luck
Magnus
Mars
MarsForce
43% · 40 games53% · 158 games
PugnaMitch
Pugna
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
48% · 92 games51% · 31 game
ChenLeBronDota
Chen
Tusk
TuskDukalis
47% · 113 games
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Team Tickles 67%MarsBet Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
49% · 39 games44% · 98 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
53% · 40 games52% · 125 games
BloodseekerOtaker
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 84 games52% · 52 games
ChenLeBronDota
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
50% · 110 games54% · 48 games
GyrocopterMitch
Gyrocopter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
46% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 82%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3