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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 18 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 11 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
60%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 12 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
pma · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 434 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
236 picks · 326 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
220 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
217 picks · 322 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 411 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 272 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
202 picks · 182 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
189 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tickles
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total81% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Team Tickles 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
48% · 146 games54% · 171 game
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
48% · 176 games50% · 263 games
Doompma
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
49% · 249 games53% · 118 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
52% · 177 games50% · 208 games
SnapfireRiddys
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
48% · 211 games48% · 199 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Team Tickles 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingUlnit
56% · 82 games56% · 42 games
Anti-Magegotthejuice
Anti-Mage
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
54% · 163 games42% · 258 games
Doompma
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
57% · 132 games56% · 132 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
51% · 128 games35% · 270 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
51% · 308 games46% · 111 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 81%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2