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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 7 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Shad · 5 games
80%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Shad · 5 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
80%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 13 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 150 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 404 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
207 picks · 274 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
192 picks · 381 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
184 picks · 108 bans
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
183 picks · 347 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
177 picks · 264 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
174 picks · 247 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:31
Team Tickles 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
46% · 46 games51% · 144 games
SlarkUlnit
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
48% · 155 games57% · 66 games
BrewmasterXibbe
Brewmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaAdzantick
52% · 34 games53% · 18 games
OmniknightMalr1ne
Omniknight
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
53% · 91 game40% · 145 games
PhoenixHellscream
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
51% · 134 games51% · 87 games
Vengeful SpiritPanto
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Team Tickles 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingShad
43% · 124 games55% · 55 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAdzantick
52% · 156 games52% · 67 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMinD_ContRoL
57% · 43 games55% · 100 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
41% · 33 games52% · 22 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
39% · 64 games52% · 176 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2