European Pro League Season 16 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 1:3series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Ninja Penguinswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 29 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 25 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 14 games
Luna
Ulnit · 14 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 9 games
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Lowskill · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 569 bans
Lion
332 picks · 285 bans
Vengeful Spirit
331 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
316 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 415 bans
Magnus
289 picks · 469 bans
Grimstroke
285 picks · 460 bans
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 785 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:32
Team Tickles 55%Ninja Penguins 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:08:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierLorenof
Naga SirenLowskill
MarsForce
Templar AssassinCopy
UrsaUlnit
TidehunterCorrupted
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
TechiesImmersion
Game 2prediction missed11:38
Team Tickles 52%Ninja Penguins 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistUlnit
WeaverLowskill
PangolierLorenof
PuckCopy
TimbersawForce
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
RubickNARMAN
MiranaMiLAN
TechiesImmersion
Game 3prediction missed17:39
Team Tickles 56%Ninja Penguins 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightUlnit
LunaLowskill
Templar AssassinLorenof
MagnusCorrupted
SlardarForce
Death ProphetCopy
GrimstrokeNARMAN
LionMiLAN
TechiesImmersion
Game 4prediction missed9:38
Team Tickles 54%Ninja Penguins 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenUlnit
LunaLowskill
Death ProphetLorenof
RazorCopy
MarsForce
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
ClockwerkNARMAN
MiranaMiLAN
EnchantressImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 61%
Series resultNinja Penguins 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4