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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
NARMAN · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Sven
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 15 games
47%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
42%
Magnus
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
229 picks · 268 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 107 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
194 picks · 253 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
192 picks · 412 bans
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 277 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength65% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Team Tickles 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
60% · 188 games53% · 123 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
46% · 91 game44% · 85 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterForce
48% · 86 games40% · 91 game
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Muerta
MuertaNARMAN
55% · 62 games55% · 169 games
Nature's ProphetPuppey
Nature's Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
54% · 201 game45% · 160 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct14:44
Team Tickles 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreUlnit
54% · 84 games54% · 7 games
Lone DruidBOOM
Lone Druid
Invoker
InvokerLorenof
46% · 102 games50% · 21 game
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
52% · 93 games48% · 95 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
46% · 38 games48% · 133 games
Nature's ProphetPuppey
Nature's Prophet
Muerta
MuertaNARMAN
50% · 53 games55% · 114 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2