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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 24 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 22 games
68%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 12 games
50%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 42 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 32 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
59%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Pure~ · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 696 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
390 picks · 384 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
372 picks · 739 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
338 picks · 207 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 579 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
332 picks · 638 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
307 picks · 580 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
303 picks · 401 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Team Tidebound 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
50% · 142 games51% · 12 games
Outworld DestroyergpK~
Outworld Destroyer
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
53% · 140 games52% · 210 games
Monkey KingPure~
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
53% · 259 games51% · 298 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
52% · 122 games47% · 158 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
49% · 121 game43% · 106 games
SilencerKataomi
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed47:22
Team Tidebound 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
50% · 160 games42% · 44 games
Wraith KingPure~
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
56% · 267 games57% · 158 games
BrewmasterMieRo
Brewmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
51% · 176 games50% · 428 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
52% · 224 games45% · 224 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
44% · 131 game49% · 104 games
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed30:26
Team Tidebound 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
45% · 266 games51% · 219 games
Phantom AssassinPure~
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
54% · 379 games53% · 578 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 437 games52% · 301 game
DoomMieRo
Doom
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterpLAnet
53% · 331 game44% · 115 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Bane
Baney`
46% · 43 games49% · 243 games
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 65%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3