?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 22 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 19 games
68%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 11 games
55%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 703 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 746 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
365 picks · 369 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
351 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 633 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 658 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 419 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
310 picks · 569 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:13
Team Tidebound 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
46% · 147 games50% · 128 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
50% · 80 games50% · 205 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
51% · 212 games51% · 268 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
56% · 100 games46% · 270 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
50% · 406 games49% · 74 games
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:8
Team Tidebound 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
42% · 190 games45% · 104 games
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackNothingToSay
48% · 223 games46% · 349 games
BeastmasterSumaiL
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
52% · 137 games56% · 228 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpLAnet
49% · 70 games60% · 102 games
Ancient ApparitionGH
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
46% · 231 game56% · 68 games
SlarkOmaR
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 62%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2