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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 19 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 16 games
56%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DM · 21 game
86%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 388 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 188 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 343 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 839 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 213 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 377 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
274 picks · 624 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:13
Team Tidebound 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
45% · 70 games51% · 154 games
KunkkaSatanic
Kunkka
Marci
Marcishiro
41% · 108 gameslittle data
NecrophosDM
Necrophos
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
46% · 311 games49% · 319 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
46% · 206 games66% · 82 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Disruptor
Disruptory`
38% · 76 games62% · 216 games
Magnus9Class
Magnus
Game 2prediction missed32:18
Team Tidebound 40%PARIVISION 60%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
45% · 130 games56% · 76 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
41% · 117 games45% · 48 games
TinkerSatanic
Tinker
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
53% · 204 games49% · 259 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
58% · 91 game49% · 32 games
Zeus9Class
Zeus
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
48% · 95 games53% · 222 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 66%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2