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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tealoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
25%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Echo · 11 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
xn丶e · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
50%
Pudge
Pudge
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
717 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 628 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 256 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
415 picks · 255 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1171 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
409 picks · 689 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
399 picks · 407 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 397 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Tidebound 63%Team Tea 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
43% · 195 games58% · 255 games
BristlebackCloud
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
50% · 313 games51% · 50 games
Troll WarlordShigetsu
Troll Warlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
45% · 215 games48% · 277 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
45% · 107 games61% · 34 games
PudgeOneJey
Pudge
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
little data55% · 214 games
SnapfireKaori
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct23:12
Team Tidebound 67%Team Tea 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
53% · 315 games51% · 106 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherEcho
52% · 34 games51% · 275 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Mars
Marsniu
49% · 240 games43% · 256 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Naga Siren
Naga Sireny`
61% · 136 games48% · 18 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
47% · 61 game44% · 131 game
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 78%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2