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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Yandexloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 33 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%

Team Yandex

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Noticed · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Solo · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Noticed · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 589 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 240 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 478 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
419 picks · 348 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
391 picks · 839 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 542 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 539 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Team Tidebound 52%Team Yandex 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
47% · 159 games52% · 82 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
45% · 248 games48% · 223 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
45% · 149 games56% · 180 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Bane
Baney`
60% · 44 games61% · 131 game
Naga SirenSolo
Naga Siren
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
42% · 245 games51% · 229 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed7:34
Team Tidebound 55%Team Yandex 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
46% · 57 games58% · 169 games
DoomTA2000
Doom
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
54% · 112 games50% · 102 games
DawnbreakerNoticed
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaFaith_bian
50% · 156 games55% · 193 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
50% · 201 game47% · 182 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
45% · 249 games45% · 129 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2