?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Titanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 7 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
y` · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
80%

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
526 picks · 718 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
488 picks · 565 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
483 picks · 607 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 406 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 569 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
439 picks · 972 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 56%
Hero pool strength65% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:19
Team Tidebound 85%Titan 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Titan in 39:10.
Game 2prediction correct14:31
Team Tidebound 85%Titan 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:07.
Game 3prediction correct10:30
Team Tidebound 85%Titan 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 85%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3