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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 3:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Titanloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 9 games
89%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
y` · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
543 picks · 748 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
508 picks · 576 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
498 picks · 621 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
492 picks · 583 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 414 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
454 picks · 986 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
450 picks · 806 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 899 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total84% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
Team Tidebound 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 43:47.
Game 2prediction correct21:27
Team Tidebound 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 50:45.
Game 3prediction correct29:29
Team Tidebound 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:07:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 84%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3