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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 15 games
87%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 15 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 29 games
76%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 699 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
417 picks · 307 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
374 picks · 852 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 984 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
370 picks · 620 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 496 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:20
Team Tidebound 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 54:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
49% · 213 games48% · 95 games
Linabzm
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
57% · 133 games47% · 89 games
Medusa33
Medusa
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
52% · 126 games48% · 292 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Mirana
Miranay`
52% · 113 games51% · 131 game
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpLAnet
48% · 54 games44% · 32 games
DazzleWhitemon
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed36:28
Team Tidebound 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
53% · 263 games50% · 36 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Riki
RikiNothingToSay
53% · 40 games46% · 131 game
Puckbzm
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
56% · 123 games44% · 116 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
52% · 34 games40% · 37 games
TinkerWhitemon
Tinker
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
53% · 155 games50% · 295 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2