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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 17 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 16 games
69%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
556 picks · 582 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 224 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 338 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 495 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 863 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 684 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
308 picks · 866 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Team Tidebound 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
50% · 204 games52% · 82 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
46% · 187 games50% · 212 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
49% · 173 games53% · 64 games
TidehunterDaxak
Tidehunter
Axe
Axey`
51% · 102 games54% · 125 games
EnchantressAntares
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
51% · 66 games46% · 249 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Team Tidebound 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 24:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
46% · 290 games50% · 146 games
Queen of PainSerenada
Queen of Pain
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
49% · 204 games42% · 313 games
TerrorbladeV-Tune
Terrorblade
Undying
UndyingFaith_bian
49% · 128 games56% · 127 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
46% · 133 games57% · 142 games
PugnaPuppey
Pugna
Disruptor
Disruptory`
46% · 89 games59% · 116 games
BaneAntares
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 88%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2