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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 18 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 471 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 770 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 363 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1038 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 511 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 934 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 542 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:25
Team Tidebound 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
47% · 158 games51% · 138 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
52% · 114 games52% · 25 games
DazzleXm
Dazzle
Abaddon
AbaddonFaith_bian
39% · 68 games58% · 109 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Tusk
TuskpLAnet
51% · 122 games57% · 59 games
Faceless VoidXinQ
Faceless Void
Ringmaster
Ringmastery`
36% · 7 games46% · 138 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Team Tidebound 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
48% · 61 game52% · 137 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
41% · 102 games51% · 127 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
50% · 117 games55% · 40 games
VenomancerXinQ
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
49% · 143 games50% · 88 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskpLAnet
53% · 115 games52% · 146 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2