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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 3:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 14 games
71%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 367 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 549 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 472 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 567 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
351 picks · 388 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 371 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Team Tidebound 52%Yakult Brothers 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
53% · 444 games44% · 123 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
45% · 222 games49% · 295 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
55% · 211 games51% · 399 games
TinyEmo
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
53% · 442 games49% · 302 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
51% · 119 games48% · 319 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct43:23
Team Tidebound 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
50% · 298 games46% · 310 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Weaver
Weavershiro
53% · 225 games52% · 135 games
Earth SpiritEmo
Earth Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
47% · 202 games54% · 46 games
Viperzeal
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
45% · 357 games52% · 337 games
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Clockwerk
Undying
Undyingy`
51% · 52 games53% · 306 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct28:19
Team Tidebound 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
52% · 200 games56% · 21 game
BloodseekerAme
Bloodseeker
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
51% · 155 games50% · 194 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
43% · 139 games47% · 125 games
Earth SpiritEmo
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
51% · 65 games52% · 258 games
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Clockwerk
Pugna
Pugnay`
56% · 148 games47% · 109 games
Lich天命
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 53%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3