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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 6 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
NothingToSay · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 4 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 20 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
71%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 410 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 584 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 532 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
421 picks · 229 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 718 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 478 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 943 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Team Tidebound 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
49% · 85 games42% · 48 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperNothingToSay
51% · 58 games47% · 67 games
Queen of PainEmo
Queen of Pain
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFaith_bian
67% · 33 games51% · 123 games
Bristlebackzeal
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
55% · 152 games38% · 13 games
Warlock天命
Warlock
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
48% · 98 games49% · 175 games
MuertaBoBoKa
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct22:12
Team Tidebound 56%Yakult Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
53% · 115 games50% · 39 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Sniper
SniperNothingToSay
60% · 114 games37% · 150 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
54% · 255 games49% · 96 games
EarthshakerEmo
Earthshaker
Lion
LionpLAnet
47% · 227 games49% · 236 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Pugna
Pugnay`
54% · 138 games50% · 328 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 60%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2