BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 1:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 12 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Bane
Oli · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
Jakiro
Poloson · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 15 games
Anti-Magesignature
flyfly · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
779 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
584 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
570 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
479 picks · 301 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
470 picks · 270 bans
Mars
458 picks · 747 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total73% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Team Tidebound 63%Yakult Brothers 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusashiro
Terrorbladeflyfly
PuckEcho
Queen of PainEmo
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Tidehunterzeal
RingmasterpLAnet
BatriderBoBoKa
Disruptory`
Bane天命
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 73%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1