The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team TKloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SESabong esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team TK
No games played over 6 months.
Sabong esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 735 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team TK
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team TK
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team TK 57%Sabong esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team TK — the game was taken by Sabong esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Team TK 57%Sabong esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team TK — the game was taken by Sabong esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam TK · 57%
Series resultSabong esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2