BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
747loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
No games played over 6 months.
747
Dark Willow
Boomy · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Karl · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
db- · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Luna
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Karl · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Boomy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
249 picks · 421 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Phoenix
213 picks · 328 bans
Tusk
198 picks · 184 bans
Dark Willow
196 picks · 97 bans
Centaur Warrunner
194 picks · 267 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 358 bans
Kunkka
177 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tough
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 747
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
Team Tough 44%747 56%
The model gave 56% on 747 — the game was taken by Team Tough in 51:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerHishge
Templar AssassininYourdreaM
62% · 17 games
Storm SpiritKarl
47% · 34 games
Doomdb-
69% · 28 games
PugnaBoomy
63% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct28:32
Team Tough 48%747 52%
The model gave 52% on 747 — the game was taken by 747 in 55:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TechiesHishge
MorphlinginYourdreaM
42% · 74 games
PangolierKarl
55% · 51 game
SnapfireBoomy
48% · 25 games
Marsdb-
57% · 40 games
ClockwerkJaunuel
Game 3prediction missed21:18
Team Tough 47%747 53%
The model gave 53% on 747 — the game was taken by Team Tough in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyHishge
Naga SireninYourdreaM
46% · 79 games
Death ProphetKarl
38% · 12 games
Viperdb-
46% · 223 games
RubickJaunuel
39% · 19 games
PudgeBoomy
Model check result
Model favorite747 · 57%
Series resultTeam Tough 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3