Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughwin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Carstenszloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
764 picks · 497 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 434 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
383 picks · 693 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 776 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tough
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Tough 50%Carstensz 50%
The model gave 50% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Team Tough.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 50%
Series resultTeam Tough 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1