?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Toughloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tough

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 12 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 698 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 950 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 432 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
538 picks · 397 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1201 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 380 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% UD Vessuwan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:36
Team Tough 47%UD Vessuwan 53%
The model gave 53% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerseimei
47% · 169 games49% · 129 games
Ember SpiritKNP
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beasteleven
48% · 209 games52% · 83 games
Monkey KingBeebie
Monkey King
51% · 60 games
SilencerLionaX
Silencer
58% · 106 games
Miranaboombell
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct25:36
Team Tough 48%UD Vessuwan 52%
The model gave 52% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death Prophetseimei
50% · 101 game60% · 48 games
LifestealerKNP
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal Beasteleven
44% · 98 games55% · 65 games
Storm SpiritBeebie
Storm Spirit
50% · 4 games
Bounty Hunterboombell
Bounty Hunter
44% · 82 games
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteUD Vessuwan · 50%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2