FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Trustloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TCToy Cartwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Trust
Phoenix
出省 · 4 games
Dark Willow
出省 · 3 games
Brewmaster
冷鸟 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
MangO · 1 game
Juggernaut
MangO · 1 game
Lion
出省 · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Toy Cart
Magnusoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yumeyume · 3 games
Lich
Ulu · 2 games
Phoenix
Ulu · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Op · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Op · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
439 picks · 539 bans
Clockwerk
435 picks · 521 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 567 bans
Muerta
367 picks · 277 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 400 bans
Dark Willow
348 picks · 173 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 725 bans
Lion
319 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Toy Cart
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Toy Cart
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:41
Team Trust 38%Toy Cart 62%
The model gave 62% on Toy Cart — the game was taken by Toy Cart in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMangO
Monkey KingYumeyume
Brewmaster冷鸟
PangolierXwy
Clockwerk出省
Dark SeerOp
45% · 112 games
JakiroUlu
Game 2prediction correct21:44
Team Trust 39%Toy Cart 61%
The model gave 61% on Toy Cart — the game was taken by Toy Cart in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMangO
AlchemistYumeyume
Lycan冷鸟
KunkkaOp
Phoenix出省
Earth SpiritXwy
40% · 12 games
SilencerUlu
Model check result
Model favoriteToy Cart · 72%
Series resultToy Cart 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2