The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TEAM TURTLEloss 1:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TEAM TURTLE
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 2 games
Dark Willowoften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 733 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 602 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 425 bans
Batrider
384 picks · 700 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 978 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 700 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength61% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:18
TEAM TURTLE 28%G2 Invictus Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 51:22.
Game 2prediction correct19:29
TEAM TURTLE 28%G2 Invictus Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 45:03.
Game 3prediction correct9:29
TEAM TURTLE 28%G2 Invictus Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 44:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 72%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3