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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TEAM TURTLEloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TEAM TURTLE

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 4 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 4 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fantasy · 3 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Yang · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
100%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 22 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 567 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 379 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 446 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
320 picks · 379 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 569 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
283 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 328 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 985 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:33
TEAM TURTLE 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSomnus
53% · 203 games43% · 75 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Alchemist
AlchemistMonet
58% · 214 games51% · 231 game
Lunalou
Luna
Doom
DoomChalice
50% · 261 game52% · 185 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
51% · 297 games43% · 263 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Lich
LichFantasy
51% · 38 games47% · 259 games
TuskPoloson
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct6:26
TEAM TURTLE 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMonet
55% · 158 games54% · 198 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerSomnus
53% · 137 games51% · 209 games
PuckXm
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingChalice
51% · 169 games46% · 216 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
50% · 296 games44% · 261 game
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressFantasy
51% · 297 games45% · 173 games
LionPyw
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2