Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ukrainewin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TOThe Oversightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Ukraine
Broodmotheroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Tusk
EcNart · 1 game
The Oversight
Crystal Maiden
N1NE · 7 games
Tiny
N1NE · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
MSS · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 5 games
Marcioften banned
MSS · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
YawaR · 5 games
Snapfire
Fata · 5 games
Mirana
Lelis · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
841 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
604 picks · 420 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 424 bans
Nature's Prophet
499 picks · 806 bans
Death Prophet
447 picks · 927 bans
Snapfire
444 picks · 308 bans
Clockwerk
397 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength66% Team Ukraine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Ukraine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:12
Team Ukraine 55%The Oversight 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Ukraine — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightlightless
Nature's ProphetSkyward
Outworld Destroyerxn丶e
DisruptorAtoufix
Primal BeastpJonn
EnchantressEcNart
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Team Ukraine 57%The Oversight 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Ukraine — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 21:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherpJonn
SpectreSkyward
Sniperlightless
HoodwinkAtoufix
Void Spiritxn丶e
ClockwerkEcNart
Dark WillowQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Ukraine · 62%
Series resultTeam Ukraine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2