The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
469 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
369 picks · 590 bans
Puck
359 picks · 886 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 438 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total55% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
Team Undying 55%4 Zoomers 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 36:28.
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Team Undying 55%4 Zoomers 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 36:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 55%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2