Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A-Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
A-Team
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Viperoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
82 picks · 165 bans
Puck
81 picks · 192 bans
Earth Spirit
70 picks · 59 bans
Void Spirit
63 picks · 115 bans
Rubick
54 picks · 29 bans
Undying
52 picks · 74 bans
Phoenix
51 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
50 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Undying
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
Team Undying 58%A-Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Undying — the game was taken by A-Team in 17:26.
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Team Undying 58%A-Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Undying — the game was taken by A-Team in 22:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 58%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2