The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 7 games
Miranasignature
FrancisLee · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
462 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
Mars
368 picks · 587 bans
Puck
364 picks · 877 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 435 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Eternity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total91% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
Team Undying 91%Eternity 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 36:24.
Game 2prediction missed24:36
Team Undying 91%Eternity 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 43:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 91%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2