Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
438 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
Mars
348 picks · 593 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 306 bans
Grimstroke
300 picks · 270 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 192 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 76%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect