Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
317 picks · 456 bans
Bane
274 picks · 208 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 691 bans
Tidehunter
263 picks · 394 bans
Snapfire
259 picks · 142 bans
Weaver
254 picks · 550 bans
Lion
212 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 21%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total93% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:35
Team Undying 93%simply TOOBASED 7%
The model gave 93% on Team Undying — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 35:39.
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Team Undying 93%simply TOOBASED 7%
The model gave 93% on Team Undying — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 32:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 93%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2