OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 32 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 19 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
350 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 517 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
Lina
254 picks · 416 bans
Luna
248 picks · 334 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:10
Team Undying 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:40.
Game 2prediction missed37:13
Team Undying 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:09.
Game 3prediction missed33:26
Team Undying 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3