The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 10 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
TingleK1ng · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
TingleK1ng · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
Marsoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
453 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
370 picks · 582 bans
Puck
363 picks · 868 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 302 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 418 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 15%
Hero pool strength54% Team Undying
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:12
Team Undying 89%The Cut 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Undying — the game was taken by The Cut in 30:09.
Game 2prediction missed41:10
Team Undying 89%The Cut 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Undying — the game was taken by The Cut in 25:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 89%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2