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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 20 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 16 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Askold · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 11 games
45%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 10 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 180 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
359 picks · 131 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
284 picks · 584 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 359 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 435 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
263 picks · 581 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 243 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
246 picks · 523 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:37
Team Unique 64%Fantastic Five 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 56:24.
Game 2prediction missed26:3
Team Unique 64%Fantastic Five 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 25:49.
Game 3prediction missed24:43
Team Unique 64%Fantastic Five 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 47:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 64%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3