Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 975 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
345 picks · 715 bans
Mars
340 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 333 bans
Lion
307 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:19
Team Unique 32%HellRaisers 68%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:45.
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Team Unique 32%HellRaisers 68%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:19.
Game 3prediction correct12:20
Team Unique 32%HellRaisers 68%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 68%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3